What buyers and sellers need to know about the end-of-year housing market

By David Charron   November 11 at 5:30 am

(Jonathan Ernst/REUTERS)

David Charron, president and CEO of Rockville-based multiple-listing service MRIS, writes an occasional column about the Washington-area real estate market.

 

It’s a stubborn truth about the real estate market that nobody has a crystal ball.

 

If only we could see exactly what was coming down the road, and adjust accordingly, our jobs would be much easier. Similarly, everything looks remarkably clear when viewed through the rear-view mirror.

 

Broadly speaking, this spring was a tough one for D.C.-area homebuyers, with not a lot of homes to choose from and lots of competition to buy.

 

It seems in retrospect that the combination of enormous pent-up demand and record low interest rates led to homes receiving multiple offers and being snapped up quickly. In the next year, the situation should normalize and come more into balance, with things easing up for buyers while being slightly less favorable to sellers. And while it’s never as simple as saying we anticipate a “good” or “bad” market in any given season, demand is still very high, which should make for a pretty brisk fall sales season.

 

Here are some of the developing trends we at MRIS are tracking this fall, and how we think they will impact the market:

 

• Demand will diminish. It’s no secret that the fourth quarter of the year is, comparatively speaking, a slower time of year for home sales —  typically a good 15 percent lower than the third quarter. While there is often a small end-of-summer, back-from-vacation uptick in new contracts in the fall, November and December traditionally show very modest contract activity.

 

You can’t compare the “apples” of modest November sales to the “oranges” of brisk May sales. That said, if you are a serious buyer, opportunities will present themselves.

 

• Interest rates will rise. The fall/winter 2013 housing market in our area could definitely be impacted by interest rates, which are almost certain to continue to creep up.

 

But even if they rise another full point, which could happen by the end of next year, they are still going to be at historic lows. Rising interest rates will require committed buyers to reset their expectations. If buyers are stretching every penny they have to get a house, they’re going to have to dial back their notion of how much home they can afford.

 

If buyers have a little more flexibility, they’re going to have to be willing to pay a little more each month to land the home they want. This small increase in monthly payment, however, may knock a small segment of the buying population out of the market completely.

 

• Inventory, though improving, will remain tight. Over the past five years, the D.C. metro area has had an average of 12,000 homes for sale at any given time.

 

Inventory levels have declined in this area for years, but are finally creeping back up. After dropping by an average of 8.6 percent per month between April 2011 and March 2013, new listing activity showed double-digit percent increases from April through August of this year, which may represent a turning point.

 

Since fewer homeowners are underwater, they now are able to extract equity when selling, making sales more attractive. Thus, I believe, inventory will continue to stabilize in the coming months. The active listings registered at the end of August were 10 percent lower than August 2012, but represented a much lower year-over-year gap than at the beginning of this year in March, when active supply was a good 40 percent lower than it had been in the same period of 2012.

 

• Days on the market will rise. There are currently more buyers than sellers in the market, which means that homes tend to sell quickly. We are seeing DOM numbers — indicating the number of days homes stay on the market before being sold — comparable to where they were back in 2005.

 

Townhouse sales have had the greatest activity, with a median of only nine days on the market, while condos typically sell in 13 days and detached homes in 16. But supply and demand is a simple concept: As more sellers enter the market and the number of available properties goes up, DOM will inevitably rise as a result in the next few months.

 

The real estate market dynamics are always changing, and no matter where you are in the buying/selling cycle it is important to understand your housing and financial position to make the best decision in any housing market.

 

Today, we are in unchartered territory with the recent government shutdown. The results from the fourth quarter will be telling in terms of the repercussions of the government budget issues.

纠结啊， CV还是SR

发信人: pinow (longtao), 信区: SanDiego
标  题: 纠结啊， CV还是SR
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Oct 24 01:50:52 2013, 美东)

看房子也看了一段时间了， Carmel Valley vs Scrips Ranch, 真是太纠结了。 喜欢
SR的一些房子房型，但又很难割舍CV， 难啊！

SR就那么不济吗？

可不是在灌水。

我知道这个是一个永久的话题，被讨论了很多遍了。但正是因为如此， 所以还在继续
被讨论。我们的预算在CV可以买到一个还可以的SFH， 但是在SR就能买到很不错的房子
了。 SR一个很吸引人的地方是有一层楼的房子， 因为老人和我们常住，所以一层楼的
房子要方便很多， 对小孩子来说，也可以继续体验“满屋子乱跑”的快乐。 因为我们
原来的房子就是一层的， 所以一直对此有好感。

看了SR的lake point那里风景和社区都不错， 也有一些还不错的一层楼房子。 CV呢，
56南边贵得有些离谱，北边老中都喜欢去Pacific highland买新房。说实话， 新区有
好有坏， 房子新固然好， 但是社区太新反而不好。 不过朋友都住在这里， 所以将来
如果买CV，也就只能是那里了。

学区自然CV好， 不过SR的小学初中也不错啊。 就是不知道SR那里是不是像一些人说的
“很排外”。 我看那里Asian的比例也不低， 当然有不少烙印和棒子。 CV，尤其是
PCH那里老中很多， 小孩子应该会比较自在一些，当然竞争也激烈。

至于交通， 上班时间都差不多，但是走Mira Mesa是让人揪心。


前面有几位说，一旦盯上了CV，就很难放手，我想这也是人之常情，所以想多听听大家
的意见， 尤其是SR的住户的一手意见，看看SR的优势到底能不能改变我们的想法。



发信人: JenniferZ (http://jenniferzhengrealty.blogspot.com), 信区: SanDiego
标  题: Re: 纠结啊， CV还是SR
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Oct 26 15:07:51 2013, 美东)

看了大家你一言我一语的，是不是更纠结了？那么大妈我就以SR近十年居民和房地产经
纪人的双重身份，再来淘淘江湖.

根据你的现有情况，买CV，而且就局限于Pacific Highland Ranch，以下是理由：
1）天平已经倾向于CV了，象牛角妹妹说的，强扭的瓜不甜。SR真没有不济，你的这个
问题，是否表明你认为SR不济？事实上你希望从大家的帖子里得到的是一些SR不济的
confirmation,以坚定你在CV买房的信心和决心？哈哈，我的猜测和分析，不肯定全对。
2）在Pacific Highland Ranch买房，可能更多是为了老人。老人语言不通，住那里平时出
去闲路有伴。这在SR即便是CV的其它部分都是少见的。所以，你现在
要了解的是那里有没有楼下有卧室的房型，这样老人不用上下楼。

要说CV的老美或SR的老美，他们并无二致。与其说他们除了点头招呼不和亚裔聊很多是
出于排外和骄傲，不如说他们不知道怎么和我们打交道。这就像我们对他们一样。彼此
从小看的是不一样的电影，读的是不一样的书，崇拜的是不一样的star, 喜欢的是不一
样的运动，那聊的话题自然就很有限。所以我们多多少少都有和彼此交流的恐惧症，结
果就以少交流或不交流ending. 我们老中还起码飘洋过海来这里了，他们大多根本没去
过中国，对我们的了解更有限，所以他们比我们更不知道how to handle us :-)

而我们的小孩在这里出生长大，他们和我们不一样。如果不是更多源于我们家长自己的
因素，他们和其他国家的小孩可以玩得很好。所以我不限定或有意无意地引导自己的小
孩只结交中国小朋友，而是鼓励他和其它国家玩得来的小朋友交朋友。无论我们现在住
在中国人很多的社区也好，班上中国小朋友很多也好，最终他们长大后要deal with/
work with的还是和我们现在一样。

再说说SR的方便，CV附近没有costco with gas station, 没有home depot, 没有
target, 没有walmart, 买菜一样得上H-mart,lucky seafood等等，没有Marshall,
TJMax和Nordstrom Rock， 而这些对有小孩以及节俭的生活是不可缺少的。哪怕上个中
文学校，我们SR五分钟车程就到。当然，如果我当初喜欢了CV的一个房住了，我也可以
罗列CV的一堆好处的。这不叫随遇而安，敝帚自珍嘛。

最后，在SR或CV买房的决定，不象有些决定是turning point或irreversable的。也许
settle down了就喜欢了。

周末清早码字，有伪币不？

2014 New Laws RE

2014 NEW LAWS FOR CALIFORNIA'S REALTORS®

Just hours before his deadline at midnight last night, Governor Jerry Brown signed or vetoed all the legislative bills on his desk to end the legislative process for 2013. C.A.R.’s Legal Department has summarized and made available on our webpage about 130 of these New Laws mostly taking effect next year that may affect your real estate practice or otherwise be of interest to REALTORS®. The full text of each new law is available at http://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov.

This legislative session’s new laws cover a wide range of topics of interest, including disclosure requirements, licensing matters, adjoining owners, affiliated real estate services, landlord-tenant, subdivisions, land use, employment, and many more. Some of the significant new laws that you as home owner or landlord might be interested -
TDS Revised to Include Construction Defect Litigation
Effective July 1, 2014, the Real Estate Transfer Disclosure Statement (TDS) has been revised to require disclosure of the seller’s knowledge of certain construction defect claims for newly constructed homes under a law commonly referred to as SB 800. As amended, the TDS will inquire, in question 16 of Section 11C, as to whether a seller is aware of any claims or lawsuits involving construction defects threatening to or affecting the real property, including any pre-litigation claims of a construction defect, claims of breach of warranty, or claims for breach of an enhanced protection agreement under SB 800. Senate Bill 652.
　
FTB Information Return for Out-of-State Acquisition in 1031 Exchange
For any 1031 exchange that occurs on or after January 1, 2014, a taxpayer acquiring a "like-kind" property located outside of California must file an information return with the Franchise Tax Board (FTB) for that taxable year and every year thereafter in which the gain or loss from the exchange has not been recognized. If a taxpayer fails to file such information return and tax returns, the FTB may propose to assess the amount of tax, interest, and penalties due by estimating net income from any available information, including the amount of gain. Assembly Bill 92.
　
Adjoining Owners Equally Responsible for Shared Fences and Boundaries
Commencing January 1, 2014, adjoining landowners must share equally the responsibility for maintaining boundaries and monuments between them. Adjoining landowners are presumed to share an equal benefit from any fence dividing their properties, as well as equal costs for construction or maintenance, unless otherwise agreed in writing. This new law also provides specific procedural requirements for an owner who intends to incur costs for a division fence to notify the adjoining owner of the estimated costs and other information. Existing law enacted in 1872 which requires a homeowner who fully encloses a property to refund a neighbor a just proportion of the value of a division fence has been repealed. Assembly Bill 1404.

Smoke Detectors Specifications Changed
Starting on July 1, 2014, the State Fire Marshall will not approve a battery-operated smoke alarm unless it contains a non-replaceable, non-removable battery capable of powering the smoke alarm for at least 10 years. This rule was originally slated to take effect on January 1, 2014. Until July 1, 2015, an exception to this rule applies to smoke alarms ordered by, or in the inventory of, an owner, managing agent, contractor, wholesaler, or retailer on or before July 1, 2014. Furthermore, starting January 1, 2015, the State Fire Marshal will not approve a smoke alarm unless it does all of the following: (1) displays the date of manufacture on the device; (2) provides a place on the device to insert the date of installation; and (3) incorporate a hush feature. A previous requirement for the smoke alarm to incorporate an end-of-life feature that provides notice that the device needs to be replaced has been eliminated. The requirements taking effect on January 1, 2015 was originally slated to take effect on January 1, 2014. The State Fire Marshal has the authority to create exceptions to these requirements. Senate Bill 745.

Landlord Required to Provide Specific Utility Rate Schedules
Starting January 1, 2014, a master-meter customer of an apartment building, mobilehome park, or similar residential complex, must post in a conspicuous place the applicable specific current residential gas or electrical rate schedule as published by the serving utility, rather than the prevailing residential utilities rate schedule as previously required. Alternatively, the landlord as a master-meter customer may elect to post a website address for a tenant to access the schedule as long as the landlord also does the following: (1) state in the posting that an individual user may request a copy of the specific current residential gas or electrical rate schedule from the master-meter customer; and (2) provide the schedule upon request at no cost. Senate Bill 196.

Protection of Victims of Human Trafficking as Tenants
Beginning January 1, 2014, a residential tenant can terminate a tenancy within 30 days by notifying the landlord that the tenant was a victim of human trafficking as defined. The tenant’s notice to terminate tenancy must generally include a copy of a police report or court order regarding the tenant or tenant’s household member. From January 1, 2014 to January 2016, however, a tenant may simply provide documentation from a qualified third party professional indicating that the tenant or household member is seeking assistance for physical or mental injuries resulting from the offense. This law also prohibits a landlord from terminating a tenancy, or failing to renew a tenancy, based on acts of human trafficking if documented by a police report or protective court order and the wrongdoer is not a tenant of the same dwelling unit. The landlord, however, may terminate the tenancy if, after invoking protection under this law, the tenant allows the wrongdoer named in the police report or protective order to visit the property, or the landlord reasonably believes that the wrongdoer poses a physical threat to other tenants or to the tenant’s right to quiet possession. Existing law already protects a tenant if the tenant or tenant’s household member is a victim of domestic violence, sexual assault, or elder or dependent adult abuse. Senate Bill 612.
　
Minimum Wage Increased to $10 Per Hour
Minimum wage in California has been increased from $8 per hour to $10 per hour. A one-dollar increment from $8 per hour to $9 per hour will come into effect on July 1, 2014, and another one-dollar increment from $9 per hour to $10 per hour will come into effect on January 1, 2016. The minimum wage has been $8 per hour since January 1, 2008. Assembly Bill 10.

谨防乳腺癌

接二连三的接触到身边的朋友熟人得Breast Cancer， 决定写一写。其实大家上网一查，所有信息都在那边，我只是想在这里唤起大家的意识，养成每月自查的好习惯。

Breast cancer以前大多在50多岁的妇女身上发生，但随着环境、饮食结构的变化，生活的压力，它越来越有年轻化的趋势。我的好邻居她的女儿去年被查出乳腺癌时还没过41岁的生日，我老公朋友的老婆前年患乳腺癌也是差不多这岁数，我以前的同事加好朋友得乳腺癌时才五十岁。前两天朋友微信中复旦女博士于娟32岁被确诊患上乳腺癌， 一年半不到就没了，让人叹息。她们都没有家庭病史。

以下是Breast Cancer的一些数据 -

Breast cancer is the most common cancer among American women, except for skin cancers. About 1 in 8 (12%) women in the US will develop invasive breast cancer during their lifetime.

The American Cancer Society's estimates for breast cancer in the United States for 2013 are:

• About 232,340 new cases of invasive breast cancer will be diagnosed in women.
• About 64,640 new cases of carcinoma in situ (CIS) will be diagnosed (CIS is non-invasive and is the earliest form of breast cancer).
• About 39,620 women will die from breast cancer

不但是在美国，近几年在中国，乳腺癌的发病率也很高，而且发现还往往是后期了。

在35-40之间，女性要做一个mammogram作为baseline, 过了40岁以后每年要做mammogram， 但通过mammogram发现breast cancer的时候往往已经不是早期了。

所以我提醒姐妹们，一定要养成每月定期自查的好习惯。每月可选在经期开始后的第七天，可以站着也可以躺着自查。把一侧的手臂举高到后脖，然后用另一只手的中间三个手指均匀的从armpit一直到整个乳房的检查。 力度从小、中一直到大以检查从浅至深的tissue。具体的你们可以查网上或consult doctor。避开经期前后，因为那几天breast本身就比较tender。定期检查你才能觉察是否和上月检查时有任何异样。

另外，要注意饮食，多吃水果和蔬菜。肉类中的蛋白质在蔬菜中也能汲取。Peas、Broccoli、Spinach、Artichokes和Potatoes（豌豆，西兰花，菠菜，朝鲜蓟和土豆）都是含蛋白质很高的蔬菜。

最后很重要的，要保持好心情。这说来容易做起来不易。所以时时提醒自己，这世上除了生命，没有过不去的。有经济损失时，想想没有病痛的幸福和省钱；有人和事让你烦的时候，深呼吸三口，想想你就在这世上活个两万个左右的日子，让烦恼萦绕太不值得？心情不好的时候要有出口的地方，朋友也好，家人也好，兴趣爱好也好，总之不要把它闷在心里。

投资房的Q and A

网友的post -

当看到一个提精神的“好房子”，我忍不住就拎起电话问经纪了：bla bla .... 但对方总先会告诉我: “啊，我看看，啊，你这个房子的down payment 是多少多少啊，” 然后才说其他东西。我总纳闷难道人们买房都是首先考虑是借多少 loan 吗？是对于投资划算而言？还是经纪估计我肯定要借 Loan 先吓我一下？
1. 我不借Loan不行吗？
2. 或者借一部分是划算的？借多少比例呢？
3. 全现金买房有什么不好？当然不好之一我也知道，出去的很难收得回来。
4. 光借 Loan 有什么好？有什么不好？
借此请教各位买房大拿下，另外，因为也有其他地方的朋友问我并帮着看看在圣地亚哥
的房子。我自己得好好上上这方面的课，很多问题真是好out。

我的回答 -

不是你out了，而是人各有所长。比如我看到房贴，眼睛也亮了，声音也响了，因为那
是我的爱好嘛，所以自然用心了解，而一看到大家讨论做精致的菜肴和甜点，我就自愧
无言了，象我这样偶尔请朋友到家吃饭，做菜还要看着菜谱做的人，还有啥好说的妮？
言归正传，以下是我个人的看法和经验。

我估计你买的是投资房，我估计你的经纪是和你初次合作。通常如果你是new client,
agent会问你downpayment付多少，不是他八卦，而是一个qualify客户的必要性，她对
你的资金状况需要有底，接下来make offer的时候她再确认下就可以了。另外， 看上
了合适的房子后，她跟对方agent communicate时候可以把这个重点提出来你是个
strong buyer with this this much of downpayment. 所以你有米，不用担心，要让
经纪知道 ：-）

不借loan当然行，只是资金全进去了，如果你有其它更好的投资渠道，你就暂时没有分
流了。当然你以后也可以refinance把钱拿出来， 但那总是一道程序。用现金购房，好
处是抢到房子的机率提高，如果大家出价一样，那基本非你莫属，甚至也有sellers在另外的offer比你高出$5000之内的情况下，也是有可能考虑接受你的。当然总有exception, 这里恕不展开了。如果你考虑买的是二十五万以下的房子，可以考虑现金。

之所以说这个价位用现金，还有一个因素是，这个价位的房子所在的complex很多unit
是出租房，我在Mira Mesa和Carmel Vally都碰到过。如果你贷款买投资房，lender有
二个要求， 一, owner occupancy不能少于51%，二，home owner delinquency rate不
能超过15%， 这两个很好记，一个15，一个51。所以我的客户如果是买四十万以下价位
的投资房，为小心起见我第一件事就是打电话给它的HOA了解这个情况，这个你问对方
经纪，他们大部分时间没有on hand info. 弄清楚了就避免下了offer等到贷款有困难
时才退出，伤财劳命。也不是绝对没有lender对此提供贷款， 但有的话，term和rate
就不同了。

如果买的是价位高一点的房子，可以考虑贷款。 投资房的贷款利率比自助房大约高一
个quarter. 年终报税的时候interest是可以write off的。如果你全现金，出租收入又
不错，那你的passive income税也是要交掉一部分的。特别是你的家庭收入已经在较高
bracket的话。用贷款，就当是tenant帮你付贷款。 对于投资房，lender一般要求downpayment最少25%.

Hope it helps.

Who does it belong to?

Some buyers closed escrow and as they entered their new home, to their surprise all of the mirrors in the bathrooms had been removed.  Only bare paint remained in their place.  The buyers were frustrated and felt cheated.
Did they have reason to feel this way?  And how can we avoid situations like these from occurring in the future?
Let’s take a brief look fixtures and their definitions.  A fixture begins as personal property but becomes a fixture once it is fixed (or annexed) to the home.  This is usually done by the application of plaster, cement, screws, nuts, bolts, or nails.
There are a few tests the courts use to determine whether something is personal property or a fixture.
1.) Annexation-this is the most basic test used, how securely was the item fixed to the property?
2.) Adaptation-this refers to whether the item is vital and adapted to the use of the property.  Is the item a custom piece made for the home or is it a standardized piece that can be easily moved and put into another property?
3.) Intention-did the owner install the piece to increase the value of the home?  Usually the rules of annexation and adaptation, show the intention of the owner.
Your best bet is to ask lots of questions when buying a home.  And when selling your home, be sure to disclose items you’d like to remove when you sell.  Your highest advantage is having an agent that can walk you through these challenges, and perhaps avoid this difficult situation all together!


转自my broker's blog at http://www.abacus888.com/
在交易当中经常碰到这个问题，make sure it's yours!