How to Handle Complicated Situations in Today's Seller's Market

So, the counter offer came back from the seller (REMEMBER, it's multiple counter offers meaning seller is making counter offers to different buyers at the same time with the same OR different price and terms, so even if you accept all the counter terms and price, you're NOT guaranteed to get it) requesting -
1) removal of appraisal contingency.
2) property sell "as it is".
3) no termite inspection by seller
4) earnest deposit to be 3% of purchase price

Now, you're concerned if anything happens you won't get your earnest money back. It's a legitimate concern! So talk to your experienced REALTOR, she'll have strategies for entering as well as exit.

Real estate is a sciece AND art indeed. I'm learning everyday and I'm fascinated.

Today's Thoughts

做一个真正成功的房产经纪, 不但要勤奋和细致, 更是要很坚强. 我们平时和各式人打交道. 有些经纪人缺乏起码的职业道德, 有些客人缺少起码做人的道理, 有些部门效率很低， 这些我们都要经历. 重要的是, 经历这些之后, 还是不放弃自己做人的底线和自己的dignity. 所以碰到诚实有信用的客户我都会很珍惜, 成为今后的朋友, 碰到like minded, professional的职业经纪人, 我会觉得幸运, 用同样的观念彼此共勉.

 

I always believe, business can be run with integrity, honor, and decency. 每一笔交易, 都印着我的名字，所以不管怎样我都try我的最好, 我都全心做.  对我的客户, 我owe他们fiduciary duty, 所以我尽最大的努力share我的knowledge和expertise. And they know it and appreciate it by referring their friends to me! 当我的客户推荐她们的朋友来找我，那是她们对我的辛勤劳动的最大的首肯。

 

有趣的是, 人与人之间的这种connection和click往往都是相互的. 我和Coldwell Banker的Jolyn Stoffel在一次transaction中很愉快, 虽然没见过面, 但我感觉她是个专业用心的人, 在closing后, 她也专门给我写了个道谢邮件 - "You're a classy, honorable lady and very professional, and I could feel that you're a good person too.". 还有在最近的一次交易和Re/Max的Connie Freese, 当时她星期天打电话向我了解我buyer的情况, 我觉得这个经纪人很尽职, 在这种完全是serller market的情况下还这样做 .我和她很谈得来, 她说我的客人的offer price不是最高, 但我的offer写得最好, 因为她的客户有relocation的特殊要求, 她在MLS写了一些特殊条款, 但我是唯一一个把这些incorporate到offer里的agent. 虽然最后由于我的客户不能match她客户的counter price没有成功, 她还特意给我回了一个email - "I would have enjoyed working with you as yours was one of the best-prepared offers, professionally-speaking." 这种connection多次的发生在我和客户之间，我和对方经纪人之间，我和一个交易的各相关人之间!


My service, service for life. 以此自勉.

租还是买（转载）

By Jed Kolko, Chief Economist

March 20th, 2013

Buying a Home 44% Cheaper than Renting Despite Rising Home Prices

Low mortgage rates have kept homeownership less expensive than renting in all 100 large metros

Even though asking home prices rose 7.0% in the last year, outpacing rent increases of 3.2%, the gap between buying and renting has narrowed only slightly. One year ago, buying was 46% cheaper than renting. Today’s it’s 44% cheaper to buy versus rent. In fact, homeownership is cheaper than renting in all of America’s 100 largest metros. That’s because falling mortgage rates have kept buying almost as affordable, relative to renting, as it was last year. According to Freddie Mac, between February 2012 and February 2013 the 30-year fixed rate dropped from 3.9% to 3.5%, though rates have been rising in March.

To determine whether renting or buying a home costs less, we do the following:

1. Calculate the average rent and for-sale prices for an identical set of properties. For this report we looked at all the homes listed for sale and for rent on Trulia from December 2012 to February 2013. We estimate prices and rents for the similar homes in similar neighborhoods in order get a direct apples-to-apples comparison. We are NOT just comparing the average rent and average price of homes on the market, which would be misleading because rental and for-sale properties are very different: most importantly, for-sale homes are 47% bigger, on average, than rentals.
2. Calculate initial total monthly costs of owning and renting, including maintenance, insurance, and taxes.
3. Calculate future total monthly costs of owning and renting, taking into account price and rent appreciation as well as inflation.
4. Factor in one-time costs and proceeds, like closing costs, downpayments, sales proceeds, and security deposits.
5. Calculate net present value to account for opportunity cost of money.

To compare the costs of owning and renting, we assume people will get a 3.5% mortgage rate, reside in the 25% tax bracket and itemize their federal tax deductions, and will stay in their home for seven years. We also assume buyers get a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and put 20% down. Under all of these assumptions, buying is 44% cheaper than renting nationwide, taking into account all of the costs and proceeds from buying or renting over the entire seven-year period. We also look at alternative scenarios by changing the mortgage rate, the income tax bracket for tax deductions, and the number of years one stays in the home. Our interactive map shows how the math changes under alternative assumptions. And if you’re interested, check out our detailed methodology which explains our entire approach, step by step.

Savings from Buying Versus Renting Smallest in California and New York, Biggest in the Midwest
Buying a home is cheaper than renting in all of the 100 largest metro areas, but buying ranges from 19% cheaper than renting in San Francisco to 70% cheaper than renting in Detroit. The financial benefit of buying instead of renting is narrowest in San Francisco, Honolulu, San Jose, and New York.

Over the past year, the gap between renting and buying has narrowed most in the Bay Area. One year ago, buying was 35% cheaper than renting in San Francisco and 38% cheaper than renting in San Jose; now, the difference is 19% and 24%, respectively. These metros have seen strong price increases year-over-year. In contrast, the gap didn’t narrow at all in New York, where buying remains 26% cheaper than renting, both now and a year ago. On Long Island, the difference actually widened from 34% one year ago to 36% today. New York, Long Island, and other Northeastern metros have seen more modest price rebounds over the past year, despite rising rents:

Where Buying a Home is a Tougher Call
#	U.S. Metro	Cost of Buying vs. Renting (%), 2013	Cost of Buying vs. Renting (%), 2012
1	San Francisco, CA	-19%	-35%
2	Honolulu, HI	-23%	-26%
3	San Jose, CA	-24%	-38%
4	New York, NY-NJ	-26%	-26%
5	Albany, NY	-30%	-34%
6	Orange County, CA	-32%	-41%
7	San Diego, CA	-33%	-42%
8	Los Angeles, CA	-35%	-37%
9	Long Island, NY	-36%	-34%
10	Ventura County, CA	-36%	-43%

Note: Negative numbers indicate that buying costs less than renting. For example, buying a home in San Francisco is 19% cheaper than renting in 2013. Trulia’s rent vs. buy calculation assumes a 3.5% 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, 20% down, itemizing tax deductions at the 25% bracket, and 7 years in the home.

At the other extreme, homeownership is most affordable in Detroit, where buying is 70% cheaper than renting. This means it costs less than one-third as much to buy a unit than to rent a similar unit in a similar neighborhood. In fact, buying is less than half the cost of renting (more than a 50% difference) in 46 of the 100 largest metros.

Where Buying a Home is a No-Brainer
#	U.S. Metro	Cost of Buying vs. Renting (%), 2013	Cost of Buying vs. Renting (%), 2012
1	Detroit, MI	-70%	-69%
2	Dayton, OH	-63%	-70%
3	Gary, IN	-63%	-60%
4	Cleveland, OH	-63%	-57%
5	Warren-Troy- Farmington Hills, MI	-63%	-64%
6	Toledo, OH	-62%	-59%
7	Memphis, TN-MS-AR	-62%	-61%
8	Kansas City, MO-KS	-60%	-55%
9	Birmingham, AL	-59%	-60%
10	Indianapolis, IN	-58%	-56%

Note: Negative numbers indicate that buying costs less than renting. For example, buying a home in Detroit is 70% cheaper than renting in 2013. Trulia’s rent vs. buy calculation assumes a 3.5% 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, 20% down, itemizing tax deductions at the 25% bracket, and 7 years in the home.

In the largest metros, the rent-versus-buy decision depends largely on location. Within the New York metro area, buying is just 6% cheaper than renting in Manhattan, but 53% cheaper in suburban Westchester County. This, however, is an extreme example. The differences within most metros aren’t quite so stark. In the Los Angeles metro area, buying is 22% cheaper than renting in the Pasadena / San Gabriel Valley area (telephone area code 626), while buying is 36% cheaper than renting in the San Fernando Valley (area code 818). The difference between the 626 and the 818 is a lot smaller than the difference between Manhattan and Westchester.

Here’s How Renting Could Be the Better Deal
Three factors have a real impact on the rent-versus-buy math: mortgage rates, tax deductions, and how long you stay in your home. Change any of these factors, and buying a home won’t look quite as inexpensive relative to renting. Using our baseline assumptions of getting a 3.5% mortgage rate, deducting at the 25% bracket, and staying in your home for 7 years, buying is 44% cheaper than renting nationally. Here’s the “but”:

• Lower mortgage rates lower the cost of owning. While buying is 44% cheaper than renting with a 3.5% mortgage, buying would be 39% cheaper than renting at 4.5% and only 33% cheaper at 5.5%. Higher rates mean a higher cost of owning, but prices today are low enough relative to rents that buying would beat renting even if mortgage rates rose two full points.
• Itemizing deductions lowers the cost of owning. Mortgage interest and property tax payments are typically deductible. If you itemize deductions (at the 25% tax bracket) regardless of whether you own or rent, buying is 44% cheaper. Without itemizing (read: you’re just taking the standard deduction), buying is still 35% cheaper than renting. This means that even if tax deductions were eliminated entirely – don’t worry, no one in Washington is seriously proposing anything that drastic – the rent-versus-buy decision probably wouldn’t change that much. Though it would probably encourage people to buy smaller or cheaper homes.
• Staying put longer lowers the relative cost of owning. The combined cost of buying and then selling a home can easily total more than 10% of the home’s value. Staying put longer means, in effect, spreading those costs over more years. Buying is 44% cheaper than renting if you stay put for 7 years, 37% for 5 years, and 20% for 3 years.

In other words, depending on your circumstances, buying could be a bad deal. Suppose you stay put for only 3 years AND don’t itemize your deductions (lots of homeowners with mortgages don’t itemize, by the way). Even with a 3.5% mortgage, buying would be only 9% cheaper than renting nationally. And in many markets, buying would be MORE expensive than renting if you stay put for 3 short years and don’t itemize: buying would be 2% more expensive than renting in Boston, 9% more in Los Angeles, 26% more in New York, and 45% more in San Francisco. Clearly, buying is not for everyone — especially if you live in a more expensive housing market.
 

Remember, also, that owning carries a lot more risk than renting. Some of the factors affecting the cost of ownership involve a lot of uncertainty.

• One uncertainty: you might plan to stay in your new home for a long time, but unexpected family or employment circumstances could make it necessary to move sooner and incur those closing costs after just a few years.
• A second uncertainty: unforeseen maintenance or renovation problems could push the annual care and upkeep costs much higher than 1% of the home’s value, which is what we included in our model.
• And, of course – as if this needs to be said after the last few years – there’s no guarantee that home prices will rise. We’ve used a conservative estimate of a little over 2% home price appreciation per year, varying a bit by metro – which is just slightly above the rate of inflation we’ve included. But actual appreciation could be much higher or lower than that. Price declines are always a risk, and not just in Las Vegas and Detroit. Even metros that didn’t see huge price declines during the most recent housing crisis have sustained price declines in the past. For instance, prices fell by more than 20% in much of Texas and Oklahoma in the late 1980’s, and by 10-20% across much of New England and upstate New York in the early 1990’s, according to FHFA.

Buying Probably Won’t be This Cheap Relative to Renting Next Year
How will the rent-versus-buy math change over the next year? Two factors matter most: (1) whether prices or rents are rising faster, and (2) what’s happening to mortgage rates. Looking forward, the gap should narrow more sharply because both factors should work together to raise the cost of buying relative to renting.

First, home prices are likely to keep rising faster than rents. The continued economic recovery will make people more able and interested to buy a home, boosting the demand for housing while inventory remains tight, fueling price increases. At the same time, the increase in multi-unit-building construction should add more supply, especially to the rental market, which will keep rent gains modest.

Second, mortgage rates are likely to rise in the next year as the economy improves, even though they fell in the past year. The consensus among macroeconomic forecasters is for 10-year Treasury bonds –which 30-year fixed-rate mortgages track pretty closely – to rise 6 or 7 tenths of a point over the next year. This translates roughly into a 7-9% higher monthly payment for a given mortgage.

Together, prices outpacing rents and higher mortgage rates will make buying less affordable next year relative to renting than it is now. By this time next year, the cost of buying could even exceed the cost of renting in some of the priciest metros. The rent-versus-buy decision depends on so many factors, both economic and personal, and next year the math could look very different.

 

 

What's the Scoop

现在的market怎么了？cash offer的cash 都是从中国来的吗？etc.
时间有限，我的思绪总是在我typing之前。有很多东西要写。正在努力跟上。。。

数据: San Diego median price for single-family homes up 14 percent over last February, while condos, townhomes see jump of 26 percent.

引用: National Association of Realtors predicts 2013's housing price will be on steady rise, while interest rate will raise gradually over the years. The near future inflation is going to put both the housing price and interest rate under pressure.

数据: A survey of REALTORS® released in June 2012 showed that sales to international clients accounted for nearly 5 percent of all U.S. sales. NAR Research estimates those sales—made in the 12 months ending in March 2012— totaled $82.5 billion in volume. Even at only 5 percent of all sales, that’s still a big chunk of business.

Favorable exchange rates against the dollar have enabled bargain-hungry foreign buyers to get a lot more home for the money. Compared to Europe where the average apartment is 700 square feet, US. properties are twice the size, and often for half the price.

As of March 2012, China (including Hong Kong), Canada, Mexico, India, and the United Kingdom accounted for 55 percent of all international transactions in the United States. Canada accounted for 24 percent of international sales, while China accounted for 11 percent, up from 9 percent in 2011. Mexico was third with 8 percent of sales, and India and the U.K. each accounted for 6 percent. That was a year ago's data, the most recent year's international sales will only be higher.

Top 10 Remodeling Projects

和你共享

投资房系列一: 地点的选择

老实说, 只要有人住的地方, 就不愁没房客. 而且好区和一般区同样面积差不多户型的房子价位可以差别10多万, 但租金却最多不超过一二百. 一百二百从月租来说是个大数目了. 只是好区住进来的租户工种好一点, 一般区住进来的阻户工种一般一点. 但只要都按时还租是最重要的. 那么为什么中国人一般即使是在买投资房的时候也考虑比较不错的区呢? 原因有以下几点:

1) 中国人一般买了投资房都自己管理, 省下大约8%的管理费. 所以想尽量避免处理万一住进个头痛的租客的情况.  买区域好一点的房子虽然不能完全排除, 但可以减少可能性. 但如果请好的专业管理公司, 虽然你付给他们月租8%的管理费, 却由专人负责处理这些问题.

2) 考虑以后卖的时候. 好区会好卖. 但个人认为这也要看当时的市场. 象前两年, 再好的区, 由于房市低迷, 大家也是挑挑捡捡, 讨价还价, 而这两年, 再烂的房子也不愁卖. 好一点的更是被抢, 价格被一次一次抬高.

所以, 地点差不多就可以了. 如果是投资康斗, 学区不重要, 不要以为好象是自己去住的. 最重要的是交通要方便, 上各条高速快但又不吵.  周围有公司, 医院, 超市, 百货公司, 景点, 大学, 枢纽中心地带.  我比较看好的是fashion valley, mission valley (92108) , tierra santa (92124) , mission bay海洋世界附近的地方(92117). 房子相对不贵, 但很容易出租. 租金也不错. 还有，不用担心以后是不时老中来买你的房子，只要有人接手就好了，管他是谁。但要注意的是，除非特殊情况，否则尽量避免买物业管理费高的，一来你的月费又增加不少，二来卖的时候有些人付不起，买投资房的也会有同样的concern。除非有特殊的好处，$350以上基本不考虑。当然, 自住又不一样点, 4S农场的几乎都在$450-$570之间, 老中照样买得不亦乐乎.

还有, 如果你是自己管理, 路程控制在离你自己家30分钟车程, 这样如果租户有个什么要修修补补的, 或者每年一次的修检, 或者找新住户时看房, 过去一下不会很不方便.

Lost Bid

最近一阵到处带着客户看房, 客户中有投资房, 也有自住房. 但现在的房市对buyer和 buyer agent来说竞争太激烈. 下面晾晾最近lost 的bid.

时间: 一个月前.
自住. SR 92131 Affinity Ct. 2b/2b + loft, about 1100sqt. 2 car tendem parking. HOA $375/month, condo age about 1995. airy and bright, nice upgrade, has 3rd floor view. asking price $298K. We offered $298. Rejected,  agent emailed he's received much higher offer so we weren't even in the counter offer list. 我和我的客户说我估计pending price是$320K. 一般我都会monitor closing. 注意到礼拜五刚close, 最后卖价$322K, 和我估计接近.

时间: 7天前.
自住. RB 92128. Alta Carmel. 2b/2b, about 1100sqt, car port. HOA about $275/month, condo age 2006. nice upgrade and quiet. asking price $249K. We offered $250500. Agent countered back for hightest and best. We then offered $270K with no appraisal contingency and no home warranty request, the cleanest offer could be for a mortgaged offer. Lost, agent said seller may accept $270K for all cash offer, 因为她已经有一个mortgaged offer with 35% downpayment, offer的那个人也是自住, 之前Lost 了好几个Bid, 这次一定要得到它.

时间: 3个星期前.
投资. CV 92120. Carmel View, 1b/1b, about 780sqt, car port. HOA $250/month, condo age 1990, nice upgrade, arbor lake view front. asking price $239K, listing price有点低于实际价值, we offered $250K, 我的客户很兴奋, 以为offer多了一万, 属他无疑. 我却并不乐观, 我告诉他要是他喜欢, 就一定有很多人也喜欢, 而且offer虽然多了一万, 但是本身标价低, 现在的市场自己调节, 标价低的最后卖价还是不会低. 而且这个价位的现金的太多, 所以我们的竞争力并不强. 我问了这是不是他的best and highest, 他说是. 我说OK. 我只能建议, 定价的还是客户. 第二天对方经纪人给我回信, 已经接受了另一个offer, 进了escrow. 我的客户说哦你的感觉真好, 他这时候问我愿意加价可不可以, 我说太迟了, offer被接受就是被接受了.

时间: 今天
自住. 4S 92127. 3b/2.5, about 1700sqt, HOA+fee+Mello-roos = $415/moth, Year 2003. from the picture it looks very nice with excellent upgrade. 要价$518K.上market 3 天, 今天本来约了去看的, 但走之前给agent打电话, 被告知cash offer at full price 已被接受了.



更多losing ...
<后补>

时间: 2天前.
投资. RB 92128 Alta Carmel. 1b/1b, 704sqt, a bit dark inside especially kitchen and bath, but excellent upgrade on bath and kitchen. asking price $195K which I think it's already over priced. 但我知道现在的市场已经不能看以前的sale data了. 我帮我的高中同学(她人在上海我全权代理)offer full price, all cash, close in 2 weeks. 昨天对方经纪给我打电话, 说能不能go up到$205K, 她有另外一个cash offer在这个价位, 只是close 需要3个星期. 我说我们最多go up到$200K(我同学说她愿意go up到$202K, 只是我觉得不值), 所以估计又没戏了.


时间: 2天前.
自住. 在TierraSanta 92124, 客户不是老中, 按理也不是老中常买房的区域. 2b/2b, 1100sqt, nice complext and upgrade, 2 car garage. asking price $325K-345K. 我们offer了$331K, 但是是VA loan. agent昨天打电话给我, 说她现在正和一个cash offer 在counter, 估计会接受那个cash offer, 把我们放在back up.

时间: 3天前.
投资. SR 92131 Terrace. 2b/2b, 1100+ sqt, nice upgrade, 1.5 car garage, HOA $350. 要价$319K. 带不同的客户去看了两次, 每一次去都进出很多人在看, 有老中, 也有其它国籍, 有自住也有投资. 我们clean offer $330K. agent 告诉我有15个offer. we lost again.

时间: 2天前.
投资. RB 92128 Sabre Hill. 2b/2b, 1000+ sqt, nice upgrade, car port, HOA $300. 要价$272K. 我的客户自己星期六open house去看了后叫我写offer, clean offer $265K. agent 今天eamil我她有cash offer above $300K, "thank you for your effort".



It looks like, in current market,  if you offer cash and quick closing, say 2 weeks, you may have good chance to get it. Otherwise, as long as the asking price is not too outrageous, you may have very slight chance if you don't offer the full price, and even you do and above, it depends on the competition of multiple ofers ....

So I tell my clients, if you really want it, and want it NOW, offer the best price and term you could, and I will do my part as an agent.

这就是目前的市场状况, 我有不少客户, 可最近都lost了. 叹气. 其实我们的offer price和term都不差. 可这个市场走得超前. agent都知道（除非是新手没经验），这些交易按正常，appraisal出来都会very much低于offer price, 所以有cash offer quick close is perfect for listing agent and seller了。过去的comparison data会fell 现在的情况，所以你的down payment 很紧的话会有问题（我在另一个post "关于银行估价"有谈到）。In the mean while, 现在的高销售价的数据又会被接下来的三个月使用，所以估计接下来三个月appraisal fell below asking price的状况会有所改变。

renew了我的real estate license

real estate license每四年一次renew一次, 每次renew的时候要完成45小时的continuous education课程, (30个小时的专题和15个小时的职业道德), 然后完成online的testing. 今年我选了一个最cheap但最challenging的topic: real estate matters. 有一个最贵但最简单的据说第一次通过率达90%. 老中里面没有几个是不身经百战的, 所以考试是难不倒我们的. 不过这次的topic确实比较tough, 里面包括property management, financing, income taxes, economic, seller and buyer alternatives (real estate purchse options, options to buy, short sale and foreclosure等等)和 legal aspects.  所以我读的特别专心, 其后花了38个小时才读完minimum 30个小时的专题, 收获真是不少! 本来order的是online版本, 但online的过了一年材料就不available了, 考虑order paper book. 学无止境啊, 古人的话怎能有错呢. 一行有一行的经.

Talking Points from CAR 和我对房事趋势预测

和大家分享来自Californial Association of Realtors的talking points -


Most housing experts are saying that the housing recovery is moving ahead full steam, while others are warning that we’re getting into another housing bubble, which could end disastrously. Check out these myths about the real estate market that some still buy into:

1) People are giving up on the suburbs: Widely reported statistics from the U.S. Census Bureau last year had many people thinking that, for the first time in decades, cities were growing faster than the suburbs. However, The Washington Post found that “urban cores are still much, much smaller than the suburbs, which means they can show higher growth rates even if they’re adding far fewer people in absolute terms.”

2) We’re seeing a permanent shift to renting: That’s not what recent studies show. A recent survey by Prudential Real Estate found that 96 percent of American consumers consider homeownership important. Additionally, a January survey by homebuilding company PulteGroup showed that six in 10 renters who want to own a home plan to buy in the next two years.

我的个人观点:
1) 现在我们的情形(从2012年六月开始. 那之前还是只要你make full price offer, you pretty much get it)是很多的listing都有多个offer, 甚至许多价位在20w-40w的房子有10多个offer with multiple offers above asking price. 而且这一阵我带客户看房中看到的不仅仅是投资者, 大部分是自住, 那么这房子只有涨的份. 10offer中9个落空, 那九个人还得继续找, 扑向下一个(literally :-)

2) SD无论哪个区域都少房源. 我有客户专看clairemont mesa, linda vista, sera mesa和tierrasanta, 原以为这些地方都不是华人的热区, 机会应该多点, 发现并不是这么回事, 没房子! 人就是这么奇怪, 房价跌的时候觉得还会再跌, 持币观望, 卖家也是, 发现现在房价上去了, 反而惜售. 对此, 我的态度还是一样 - 就象买卖股票, 不要老想着买在最低点, 卖在最高点, 这种事轮不到我们, 差不多就行了.

3) 接下来的这几年,  first time buyer要买房, 包括直接来自其它国家的投资者要买房, 原来那批short sale和 foreclosure walk ou的人信用修复又重新回到市场. 而且预期2016-2018是Generation Y (google generation Y for its definition)买房的高峰, 又会是一个boom.

4) 人们觉得房子贵, 那是因为大家的mentality还停留在2009-2011年的房价. 早在2012年二月我就和我周围的人说, "2012年是你在近年内能拿到good deal的最后一年了." 2005-2006间的crash, 从严格意义来讲并不是房价crash, 而是credit cash, lender仅凭credit core/fico score就随意make 100%的loan with 0 downpayment assuming housing price could just keep rising然后home owner会因此积累equity. 经过这几年的修整, it's about to bounce hard. 房地产是个cyclical的industry, 通常5-7年一个间隔, 从2012年三月分开始bounce, 预计接下来一直到大约2019年都会维持上升趋势. 不管你现在是否能接受, 赶上和超过05, 06年的房价比大部分人预料的会来得更快.

5) 如此大量的印钞, 通膨上去是必然的, 这给房子和利率带来上涨压力.

以后会继续补充.

Care for First Time Buyers

我订阅加州房地产协会的杂志, 有天看到谈论第一次买房者的种种stereotype -
1) 不懂什么, 非跟你瞎搀和.
2) 房子看了一个又一个, 主意不停改.
3) 在做决定的时候还经常把父母亲也一起拉进来, 父母亲又有他们自己的意见.
4) Emotional. make offer后左思右想, get cold feet, drop out.

等等.

有些agent对第一次买start up房子的客户草草了事, agent的commission是和房价成比例的, 买小房和大房agent要做的事和下的工夫是一样的, 甚至更多, 因为高价位的房子抢的概率小, 而20w-40w这一带的房子抢得更凶, agent确实要出很多力. 所以我一个agent朋友说30w以下的她不做.

对这些, 我不看法不同. 我对我的第一次买房的客户总是给予很多personal的attention, 不管是什么价位的房. 我想想我的第一次买房. 我就知道我要做得更好. 就是因为不懂, 才要一个好的agent提供更多的信息啊. 我的客户说他们被被我"宠坏"了, 他们感觉我似乎只有他们一个客户, 因为每次他们给我发email或打电话问点什么, 我都是能回尽快回, 他们说他们很依赖我, 我很高兴, 只是他们不知道我一天都要handle多少事情. 哈哈。


大家都知道界面是多重要, 你在网上order something, hit submit button以后如果display你一个blank page叫你等一分钟你肯定受不了, 但如果show你一个processing progress bar你同样等一分钟, 你的感觉又很不一样. 所以我的style是不时有update, 哪怕不能一下子回答他们的inquiry, 我也会告诉对方我正在working on it, 而且尽可能给对方有个预期. 不时有agent抱怨客户没有loyalty, 可是如果客户依赖你, 还有什么可怕的呢? 如果我尽力了, 对方还是跑掉了, 我不会觉得可惜, 不是我的就是不是我的! 可我会问他们, "我在哪些方面需要改进?"

就象我找第一份工作的时候, 我说, "给我一次面试的机会, 我就能得到这个工作!" 现在我同样对自己和prospective client说, "给我一次面谈的机会, 我会做好你的agent."

虽然客户现在买的可能是小房子, 但我希望他们3-5年以后买卖房子的时候还会想到我, 当他们有朋友同事买房的时候也会想到我. 有些客户稀里糊涂地买了房, 回头想想当初agent实在了草, 那么, 以后他们还会再回头吗?  为了混口饭做事和怀着热忱做事是不一样的, 同样是挣钱, 我希望我自己一直保持我的passion.

第一次买房从哪里开始

最近网站上经常看到一些朋友在询问和讨论第一房究竟应在地点和价格上从长计议一步到位, 还是从start up开始一步步upgrade。我结合自己客户的一些案例，总结一下买房时需要考虑
的因素。

首先是预算。说到预算, 预算包括两个方面。其一是首付和其它费用 。首付一般至少需要20%, 同时还考虑到close时的各项费用（ close 费用参考我的另一篇博客 http://jenniferzhengrealty.blogspot.com/2016/01/blog-post_28.html）。如果是jumbo loan （注：对jumbo loan的定义，各州不一样，同州各个城市可以不同，具体 参见http://www.bankrate.com/finance/mortgages/california-jumbo-loan-limits-by-county.aspx），还应该有贷款数额的10%左右的liquid assets（cash，stock, 有的银行401K 可以抵50%）作为reserve。其二是 月供/税前月收入比例（DTI）。从可以拿到贷

款的角度来讲，confirming loan （<=417K) 的DTI一般不能超过45%，虽然有时最大可以做到50%。Jumbo loan的 DTI 一般不超过43%。贷款的时候是保守点还是激进点呢？我个人认为如果还年轻，事业处于上升通道可以激进一点。一般来说是25%左右的DTI是合适的。DTI太低，很快手头攒钱多了你会后悔房子买小了；DTI太高，生活质量会受到影响。这里以自己和很多客户的体会给你个建议， 如果两人工作， 年龄不到四十， 买房建议撑着点买，条件允许的话一步到位， 意即房子可以满足10-15年的需要， 不然三、五年以后会很纠结， 而卖房的各种费用将近房价的5-6%。

第二，Commute 需求，也就是生活上的便利。生活方便、交通离上班近的地方等你住进去了你就会深刻体会。特别是如果有孩子需要接送，至少家长中有一人要离学校/家近以处理突发事件。

第三，学区。 这是中国人讨论的一个热门话题。如果还没孩子或孩子还是baby,
这个可以为非主要要因素，美国房子平均住6-8年，等你小孩上学时，你也基本该搬家了。我看到有些网友提到现在还没小孩, 可为了未来小孩的上学需要, 考虑撑着去Carmel Valley买房, 个人认为并不是很有必要。CV的townhouse/condo 都50-60w, condo/townhouse的monthly HOA fee只要是包水的一般都在$300以上，大部分房子都要交不菲的mello roos,  而你为了好学区多花的那些年, 没有小孩在那里上学, 所以从现在到你的孩子上学还有多少年, 那多少年之间可能的变化会有多少, 你得考虑。你可能希望一次到位，很多人刚买房时都这么想，但最后一次到位的寥寥无几。而且，排名第一和第三真的没太大区别。可以考虑先买环境不错、方便的地方。有可能花少钱买同样大小的房子或者花同样的钱住更舒适的房子。等到人口、需求和收入改变时再换房。并且那个时候你对房子的看法可能和最初有很大变化, 也更成熟。

最后再讲房子，比如你喜欢新房子，次新房还是老房子也可以？如果买七、八十年代的房子，要看 结构，也要检查plumbing fixture, 窗户、地、厨房和卫生间都升级了没有？ 这几项都是费钱的， 如果没有， 你买了后早晚要重做， 因此要考虑成本。再比如多大面积，几个卧室/卫生间，需要single Family 还是town house 也可以？当然这些又是和最重要的预算是挂钩的。

这么多因素，你不可能找到什么都满意的，需要prioritize和compromise, 这样看房子时就不会因为次要因素而放过可能适合自己的房子。买房可以参考意见, 但是不能被别人牵着走, 人云亦云, 主意还是得自己拿!

祝大家找到一个 work for yourself 的方案！