Talking Points from CAR 和我对房事趋势预测

和大家分享来自Californial Association of Realtors的talking points -


Most housing experts are saying that the housing recovery is moving ahead full steam, while others are warning that we’re getting into another housing bubble, which could end disastrously. Check out these myths about the real estate market that some still buy into:

1) People are giving up on the suburbs: Widely reported statistics from the U.S. Census Bureau last year had many people thinking that, for the first time in decades, cities were growing faster than the suburbs. However, The Washington Post found that “urban cores are still much, much smaller than the suburbs, which means they can show higher growth rates even if they’re adding far fewer people in absolute terms.”

2) We’re seeing a permanent shift to renting: That’s not what recent studies show. A recent survey by Prudential Real Estate found that 96 percent of American consumers consider homeownership important. Additionally, a January survey by homebuilding company PulteGroup showed that six in 10 renters who want to own a home plan to buy in the next two years.

我的个人观点:
1) 现在我们的情形(从2012年六月开始. 那之前还是只要你make full price offer, you pretty much get it)是很多的listing都有多个offer, 甚至许多价位在20w-40w的房子有10多个offer with multiple offers above asking price. 而且这一阵我带客户看房中看到的不仅仅是投资者, 大部分是自住, 那么这房子只有涨的份. 10offer中9个落空, 那九个人还得继续找, 扑向下一个(literally :-)

2) SD无论哪个区域都少房源. 我有客户专看clairemont mesa, linda vista, sera mesa和tierrasanta, 原以为这些地方都不是华人的热区, 机会应该多点, 发现并不是这么回事, 没房子! 人就是这么奇怪, 房价跌的时候觉得还会再跌, 持币观望, 卖家也是, 发现现在房价上去了, 反而惜售. 对此, 我的态度还是一样 - 就象买卖股票, 不要老想着买在最低点, 卖在最高点, 这种事轮不到我们, 差不多就行了.

3) 接下来的这几年,  first time buyer要买房, 包括直接来自其它国家的投资者要买房, 原来那批short sale和 foreclosure walk ou的人信用修复又重新回到市场. 而且预期2016-2018是Generation Y (google generation Y for its definition)买房的高峰, 又会是一个boom.

4) 人们觉得房子贵, 那是因为大家的mentality还停留在2009-2011年的房价. 早在2012年二月我就和我周围的人说, "2012年是你在近年内能拿到good deal的最后一年了." 2005-2006间的crash, 从严格意义来讲并不是房价crash, 而是credit cash, lender仅凭credit core/fico score就随意make 100%的loan with 0 downpayment assuming housing price could just keep rising然后home owner会因此积累equity. 经过这几年的修整, it's about to bounce hard. 房地产是个cyclical的industry, 通常5-7年一个间隔, 从2012年三月分开始bounce, 预计接下来一直到大约2019年都会维持上升趋势. 不管你现在是否能接受, 赶上和超过05, 06年的房价比大部分人预料的会来得更快.

5) 如此大量的印钞, 通膨上去是必然的, 这给房子和利率带来上涨压力.

以后会继续补充.